Seems I called it once again - a few days ahead of time

Yesterday I posted a little about the Saunders Index.  Seems as if I am saying that things are not really improving much with our economy even though news stories and the market may paint a more objective picture at times. 

Stories I post and pieces I write take into account many factors.  The Saunders Index wraps up a lot of these factors.  I have a somewhat brief explanation at the bottom of each blog page.

Well, seems for the last two days I have not been as optimistic as some other financial folks.  Talk of double dip recession is somewhat funny to me as it implies there will possibly be another dip but to me this is just misleading.  There will continue to be a series of dips, each with some sort of explanation from our government and financial people that talk in mumbo jumbo.  In the end it really boils down to a change over the last decade or two of who we are as a country and what we have come to expect.  Things will not improve overnight, in the next few weeks, months or .....   Until we change as a country change in the world in which we live will not change.

The last two data points on the right hand side of the above chart is today's drop of the Saunders Index.  Things will not have a chance of improvement until the right hand data point is above the left most datapoint on the chart.  If the datapoint does rise to above the left most datapoint it must remain there for at least 60 horizontal segments for a chance at improvement.  Not any guarantee of improvement, just a better chance of improvement.  At the moment there is a very little chance of improvement.

Continuing with a few news items from today following the news of yesterday where California looked as if it would be the first state where folks could starve most easily by being first to start reducing food stamp programs.

Californians' income drops 2.5 percent in 2009, marking first decline since World War II

SUDHIN THANAWALA Associated Press Writer August 11, 2010 3:28 p.m.

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — The personal income of California residents declined last year for the first time since World War II, state officials said Wednesday.

An analysis by the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis found that statewide income fell by $40 billion in 2009 to $1.56 trillion. That's down about 2.5 percent from the previous year and even lower than the 2007 figure.

Per capita income was a little more than $42,000 in 2009, compared with nearly $44,000 in 2008, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Data released by the agency Monday shows most of the state's metropolitan areas saw personal income decline or remain the same last year.

In the Los Angeles area, personal income fell 3 percent to $551.27 billion from $568.43 billion in 2008. San Francisco saw a 3.3 percent decline to $257.76 billion from $266.68 billion in 2008.

Fresno and Bakersfield were among the few areas that saw personal incomes rise.

Brad Kemp, an economist with Beacon Economics, said the numbers from those Central California cities reflect relatively steady employment in the farming sector.

"The farm industry has always been resistant to job losses," he said. "Food remains a commodity that people can't skimp on."

Overall, the income drop in California was more dramatic than it was nationwide. The U.S. saw an average decline of 1.8 percent in 2009.

"You've got an unholy trinity of three things going on here," said H.D. Palmer, a spokesman for the state Department of Finance.

Between 2008 and 2009, Palmer said, the state lost nearly 900,000 jobs and saw stock and dividend income fall. Wages also declined as people worked fewer hours with less overtime and saw income from sources such as tips and commissions go down.

Personal income falls in Los Angeles area

August 11, 2010  11:11 am

Thanks to the sagging stock market and the dearth of jobs in the state, many Californians have a little less in their pocketbooks than they did a few years ago. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that trend this Monday, releasing regional data showing that personal income declined in much of the country in 2009.

In the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana metropolitan area, per capita personal income fell to $42,818 from $44,519 in 2008, a 3.8% decline.Total personal income for the region fell to $551.3 billion from $568.4 billion.

The region is ranked 43rd in the country in per capita personal income. The Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn. area is ranked first, with a per capita income of $73,720; San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont was second, at $59,696; Naples-Marco Island, Fla. was third, at $54,548.

Personal income fell in each of those regions in 2009 as well.

The BEA said earlier this year that state personal income declined an average of 1.7% in 2009, the largest decline in 60 years.

Falling personal income is another drag on the sluggish economy. If consumers have less money, they spend less money, which hurts retailers. If retailers don't order more goods, manufacturers, shippers and truck drivers suffer.

It also reduces tax collections. State Controller John Chiang said Tuesday that general fund revenues in May were $91.1 million lower than expected. Personal income tax revenues were $210 million, or 6.6%, worse than expected.

-- Alana Semuels

I don't know what was more disturbing - the fact somebody typed this into a system and nobody caught the problem or the fact that it was up for many hours in Union Station in the heart of Los Angeles and none of the employees even noticed. Or ... if they did notice they did nothing about it. Remember when people took pride in their work? Remember phrases like an honest day of work for an honest day of pay? 

Yeah ... a recession.  Not what might go down in the history books as THE Great Depression?   World War I, World War II.  The Great Depression I and II?